Zambia After Open Access: Who Is Building the Power Market Beyond ZESCO

Zambia’s 2024 Open Access Regulations allow eligible generators, traders and customers to use spare capacity on transmission and distribution networks they do not own, on non-discriminatory terms. Introduced during severe drought-driven electricity shortages, the reform created new routes for generators to reach large domestic and cross-border customers without relying exclusively on Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation Limited (ZESCO) as the contractual buyer. 

Two years later, those routes have attracted approximately 1,164 MW of approved non-ZESCO Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) capacity, but only 225 MW can be matched to operating projects. The gap shows that alternative demand is emerging faster than dependable supply. Zambia’s open-access market is therefore taking shape around the projects and traders able to combine credible customers with financing, network access and workable payment arrangements.  

Executive Summary 

• Alternative-offtake commitments have grown faster than operating supply. Non-ZESCO buyers account for approximately 1,164 MW of approved Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) capacity, but only 225 MW can be matched to operating projects. Another 25 MW has reached financial close, construction is reported against 45 MW and 868.6 MW remains at approval only.  
• A PPA does not provide an automatic route to electricity delivery. Projects must combine financing and construction with spare network capacity, access approval, metering, registration, nominations, financial security, dispatch and balancing arrangements.  
• GreenCo provides the clearest evidence of projects progressing beyond approval. The 100 MW Chisamba project is operating under a 13-year PPA, while the 25 MW Ilute project has reached financial close. Equivalent transaction chains cannot yet be reconstructed for GreenCo’s wider portfolio or other traders.  
• Disclosed private-supplier demand is concentrated, but cannot be matched to individual generation projects. Mining represents 229.1 MW, or 65%, of registered Power Supply Agreement (PSA) capacity supplied by GreenCo and Kanona. The associated network paths, credit support, balancing responsibilities and settlement records remain only partly observable.  

Zambia has created more alternative demand than deliverable supply 

Zambia’s alternative-offtake pipeline has grown substantially faster than its operating capacity. Non-ZESCO buyers account for approximately 1,164 MW of approved PPA capacity, but only 225 MW can be matched to operating projects. Another 25 MW has reached a verified development milestone, while the status of 45 MW remains inconclusive. Most of the approved pipeline has no evidence of financial close or construction. 

Figure 1: Of the 1,163.6 MW approved for non-ZESCO buyers, 225 MW is operating, and 25 MW has reached financial close. Construction is reported for another 45 MW, while 868.6 MW remains at approval only. 

The difference between approved and operating capacity suggests that identifying an alternative buyer is no longer the only constraint on new generation. More than four times the evidenced operating capacity already has an approved non-ZESCO offtaker. The larger break occurs after PPA approval, when contractual demand must be converted into a financed project with a workable route to the customer. 

That route depends on more than physical connection. Spare capacity must be available on the relevant network, and the application to use it must be approved. Metering, registration, energy nominations and financial security must also be completed before delivery. Once electricity begins to flow, dispatch instructions, balancing requirements and curtailment determine how closely actual delivery follows the contracted position. These stages connect the generator’s right to use the network with its ability to earn revenue from the PPA. 

The 225 MW operating base confirms that alternative-offtake structures can progress through this sequence. The much larger unconverted pipeline shows that approvals have accumulated faster than financing, construction, and operational access. Open access has therefore widened the pool of potential buyers, while converting those commitments into dependable supply remains at an earlier stage. 

Traders are creating a new route between generators and large customers 

The first observable transaction chains show GreenCo emerging as an intermediary between generators and large electricity users. GreenCo purchases electricity from the operating 100 MW Chisamba solar plant under a 13-year PPA, with First Quantum Minerals identified as the principal customer. It is also the contracted buyer for the 25 MW Ilute Solar project, which has reached financial close. 

These transactions separate the generator’s long-term PPA from the final customer’s electricity demand. The generator contracts with GreenCo, while the trader manages the relationship between purchased generation and customer supply. This structure gives more than one project access to demand outside ZESCO’s conventional purchasing role, but it also places payment, portfolio management, and settlement obligations between the generator and the end user. 

Chisamba and Ilute provide evidence of at least 125 MW of GreenCo-contracted generation across two stages of development. Chisamba demonstrates an operating chain from generation through a trader to an identified industrial customer. Ilute demonstrates that a trader-backed PPA has supported a project through financial close. Public disclosures do not identify Ilute’s final customer, while the precise withdrawal points, balancing arrangements and transaction-level credit support for both arrangements remain unavailable. 
 
The disclosed portfolio is therefore more visible on the generation side than on the customer and financial sides. Contracted plants and capacity can be identified, but replacement buyers, customer-level credit, collateral, credit limits, foreign-exchange allocation and settlement performance cannot yet be reconstructed from public sources. This asymmetry makes it possible to observe the trader’s growing procurement role without establishing how widely its underlying demand and payment exposure are diversified. 

The transactions show that Zambia’s emerging market is adding an intermediary layer rather than simply replacing ZESCO with individual corporate buyers. Generators gain another contractual route to demand, while traders carry a larger share of the obligations connecting contracted generation to customer consumption and payment. The extent of that risk transfer remains partly obscured by the limited disclosure of trader portfolios and transaction terms. 

Private traders support nearly 90% of verified operating capacity beyond ZESCO 

Zambia’s approved market beyond ZESCO is much larger than the capacity that can be matched publicly to operating projects. This gap does not prove that the remaining projects have failed. It shows that regulatory approval is accumulating faster than visible evidence of construction, commissioning, and electricity delivery. 

Figure 2: Public operating evidence covers 225 MW of the 1,163.6 MW approved outside ZESCO, with private traders supporting 200 MW. 

Private traders are associated with nearly 90% of the verified operating capacity identified outside ZESCO. Direct bilateral arrangements account for a smaller share, while CEC is the approved offtaker for 500 MW of generation agreements but none of that capacity can yet be matched publicly to an operating project. GreenCo’s domestic sales and trader exports confirm that trading activity is occurring, but the reported volumes and revenues cannot be attributed to individual registered PPAs or power supply agreements. They therefore do not establish how much of the approved portfolio is operating or which contracts generated the reported revenue. 

The clearest publicly traceable route beyond ZESCO’s purchasing role is currently trader-backed offtake. Among the 225 MW of registered PPA capacity matched to operating projects, 200 MW has GreenCo, Kanona or Kiyona named as the buyer. This confirms that trader-backed agreements have progressed beyond regulatory approval, but it does not establish the scale of direct or vertically integrated supply across Zambia because the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) registers do not quantify those arrangements at the operating capacity.  

Disclosed power supply agreements are concentrated in mining and exports  

The PSA  register provides a separate view of the customers contracting electricity outside conventional generation PPAs. These customer agreements cannot be matched individually to the projects in the PPA register, so they do not identify the demand supporting the 225 MW of evidenced operating capacity. They instead show the composition of disclosed contracted demand. 

Figure 3: Mining accounts for 65% of disclosed registered PSA capacity supplied by GreenCo and Kanona, followed by exports at 30%. 

Figure 4: Across the full PSA register, exports account for 58% of disclosed capacity, largely reflecting ZESCO’s 400 MW supply agreement. 

Mining accounts for 229.1 MW, or 65%, of the 351.1 MW in registered PSAs supplied by GreenCo and Kanona. Across the full PSA register, exports become the largest segment at 504.9 MW, largely because of ZESCO’s 400 MW supply agreement. The distinction matters because ZESCO export contracts are not evidence of trader-led open-access demand. 

The private-supplier portfolio also concentrates exposure in a small number of contracts. Konkola Copper Mines and Sinomine Kitumba account for 190 MW, or 54% of disclosed private-supplier PSA capacity. This connects more than half of the portfolio to the operating performance of two mining customers. 

Export exposure is similarly concentrated. National Transmission Company South Africa accounts for 100 MW of the 104.9 MW registered with private suppliers, while the remaining 4.9 MW is contracted with Malawi’s ESCOM. The register identifies the counterparties and capacities but not settlement performance, payment security, delivery paths or available spare capacity. It therefore shows where customer and cross-border exposure sits without establishing how the related payment and delivery risks are allocated. 

What We’re Watching 

Zambia approved its Open Access Market Guidelines and network-pricing methodology in 2025, while supporting rules for trading, metering, balancing and system operation remained under consultation into 2026. These rules will shape how the market manages the commercial arrangements emerging across its first transactions. 

Three developments will indicate whether the market is becoming deeper. First, whether approved agreements continue moving into construction, commissioning and sustained electricity delivery. Second, whether traders add customers beyond the mining and export buyers that currently dominate disclosed demand. Third, whether the operational rules make network access, balancing costs and settlement responsibilities clearer across generators, traders and customers. 

Progress in only one area would provide a limited picture. More approvals without operating projects would expand the contracted pipeline but not confirmed electricity supply. More generation without a broader customer base would preserve the current concentration. Clearer rules without sufficient network capacity would improve transaction processes without necessarily increasing electricity flows. Progress across all three areas would provide stronger evidence that the market is extending beyond its current group of transactions. 

Bottom Line 

Zambia’s emerging non-ZESCO market has demonstrated bankability only where the generator, trader, customer and network can be assembled into a credible transaction. The 100 MW Chisamba project is operating under a 13-year PPA with GreenCo, uses the ZESCO network and has First Quantum Minerals as its principal customer. The 25 MW Ilute project has also reached financial close with GreenCo as its buyer. These projects give GreenCo the strongest record of moving trader-backed generation beyond regulatory approval. 

That record does not yet extend across the wider trader market. Chisamba’s precise withdrawal point and allocation of payment, balancing and curtailment exposure are not identifiable, while Ilute’s customer and delivery path remain undisclosed. Kanona is linked separately to operating generation and registered customer agreements, but the two sides cannot be matched into complete transaction chains. Zambia has therefore established that selected trader-backed projects can reach financing and operation.