Electron Intelligence
ResearchData Centre Power Outlook
2025–2035

Africa Data Centre
Power Outlook

EI’s bottom-up outlook for data-centre electricity demand (TWh and peak MW), campus power procurement, delivered LCOE economics, and investment risk across Africa.

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12.60 TWh
2035 base-case annual electricity consumption, up from 2.55 TWh in 2025.
1,598 MW
Sum of individual site peak power duties in 2035.
206 facilities
177 operating facilities and 29 planned data-centre projects in EI’s register.Source: Electron Intelligence | Data Centre Power Outlook Report.
77%
South Africa’s share of additional annual electricity consumption
337 MW
Scheduled additions out of 647 MW of announced IT capacity
54–60%
Nigeria modelled gas savings versus continuous diesel, including backup
26.6 TWh
Cumulative base-to-delayed demand gap over 2026–2035

Key findings

Electricity demand growth through 2035

EI projects Africa’s data-centre electricity consumption to rise nearly fivefold from 2.55 TWh in 2025 to 6.95 TWh in 2030 (a 22.2% CAGR) and 12.60 TWh in 2035 in the base case. Average IT load rises from 197 MW to 1,052 MW.

By 2035, average facility demand reaches 1,438 MW, while the sum of individual site peak duties reaches 1,598 MW, an 11% difference. South Africa accounts for 77% (7.77 TWh) of additional annual consumption; Nigeria adds 0.79 TWh (8%). Colocation operators account for roughly 90% of continental growth.

Annual electricity requirement
Base growth case · TWh

Source: Electron Intelligence | Data Centre Power Outlook Report.

52% scheduled pipeline
and a 583 MW capacity gap

In 2025, EI estimates average IT draw at 197 MW across 414 MW of identified rated IT capacity.

Looking to 2035, only 337 MW of the 647 MW announced additional IT pipeline has a scheduled commissioning date. EI’s base case implies a further 583 MW of unannounced rated IT capacity, including 513 MW in South Africa after 2029. Kenya presents a different position, with identified IT capacity roughly four times its 2035 forecast requirement.

Delivered power economics
in South Africa and Nigeria

For a modelled 12 MW IT facility using 97 GWh a year, supplementing South African grid and backup supply with wheeled solar reduces procurement costs by 11.5%, from $126.78/MWh to $112.19/MWh, saving approximately $1.42 million annually.

In Nigeria, EI’s ten-year model estimates standalone pipeline gas generation at $144/MWh and CNG at $172/MWh. Full-sized diesel backup adds $56/MWh to both routes, raising costs to $200/MWh and $228/MWh respectively, against $496/MWh for continuous diesel.

Electricity demand scenarios in 2035
Annual electricity consumption · TWh

Delayed growth is 49% below the base case; accelerated growth is 94% above it.

Source: Electron Intelligence | Data Centre Power Outlook Report.

Exposure to slower growth
and upfront shared capex

EI’s delayed-growth scenario reaches 6.44 TWh in 2035, 49% below the base case, creating a 26.6 TWh cumulative demand gap over 2026–2035. Roughly 80% of that gap falls after 2030, and South Africa accounts for 78% of the 2035 shortfall.

At iXAfrica’s NBOX1 campus in Nairobi, the planned 18 MW IT expansion is paired with a proposed connection upgrade from two 4 MVA feeders at 11 kV to a 66 kV arrangement with two 40 MVA transformers.

Power procurement routes
& commercial constraints

MarketPrimary procurement routeCommercial & underwriting constraints
South AfricaWheeled renewables and multi-site operator PPAsGrid connection capacity, municipal wheeling rules, time-of-use settlement and captive solar exclusions.
NigeriaBehind-the-meter natural gas and industrial clustersState (Lagos/Ogun) versus federal licensing, pipeline concentration in two major phases and gas logistics.
KenyaGrid supply paired with Nairobi campus expansions50% off-peak utility tariff discounts, unestablished wheeling charges and 66 kV substation upgrades.
EgyptBilateral private-to-private renewable PPAsOctober 2026 transmission-use charge increases (+65% at HV; +80% at MV), hourly matching without grid banking and EETC approvals.
MoroccoIntegrated green power for cloud and hyperscale campusesA proposed 16 MW first phase could nearly match the country’s current 2035 demand forecast. Incumbent strategic power partners can limit third-party IPP access.

The full report also evaluates power opportunities, tariff reforms and industrial-enclave supply in Angola, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.

Source: Electron Intelligence | Data Centre Power Outlook Report.

Full report, facility data
and Excel models

Subscribers can access the complete five-chapter report alongside the underlying facility registers and Excel financial models.

For energy developers & IPPs

Facility &
procurement registers

  • Project-level power procurement evidence alongside EI’s register of 177 operating facilities and 29 planned projects.
  • Phase-by-phase IT megawatts, transformer sizing (MVA) and voltage connection upgrades.
  • Project assessments covering counterparty status, municipal wheeling rules and state-versus-federal licensing routes across African markets.
For infrastructure investors & lenders

10-year LCOE models
& tariffs

  • CAPEX, fuel escalation, O&M and 97% gas / 3% diesel dispatch assumptions for pipeline gas and CNG, with continuous diesel as a benchmark.
  • Eskom 2026/27 wheeled-solar credit and cost analysis, plus published 2026 industrial tariffs across voltage tiers.
  • PPA risk-allocation matrices and post-2030 downside utilisation sensitivities.
For data-centre operators & investors

Supply-demand
& OPEX models

  • Country-by-country comparisons of operating and scheduled IT capacity against projected demand through 2035.
  • Phase-delivery milestone trackers, including power connection and supporting infrastructure dependencies.
  • Facility OPEX impacts under different electricity-cost shares and bundled versus metered customer pricing.
For power developers & investors

Power procurement
analysis

  • Evidence-led procurement review covering 81 data-centre project records across 26 countries.
  • Utility supply, captive generation and third-party power contracts, including renewable PPAs and wheeling arrangements.
  • Existing supply agreements, grid connection upgrades and fuel infrastructure dependencies that shape opportunities for new power suppliers as campuses expand.

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executive summary

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EI platform subscribers

Full report
& Excel models

  • Full five-chapter report: Complete text, exhibits and detailed market analysis.
  • 206-facility register: Operating and planned campuses with linked power procurement evidence.
  • 10-year LCOE & OPEX models: Underlying financial workbooks for South Africa and Nigeria.
  • Regulatory & tariff matrices: Voltage-tier tariffs across Kenya, Egypt and Morocco, plus licensing routes in Nigeria.
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